Background/Aims Prediction of short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) may enhance effective management.
Methods To develop, explain, and validate a predictive machine learning (ML) model for short-term mortality in patients with ACLF with two or more organ failures (OFs). Utilizing a large ICU cohort with detailed clinical information, we identified ACLF patients with two or more OFs according to the EASL-CLIF and NACSELD definitions. ML model was developed for each definition to predict 30-day mortality. The Shapley value was estimated to explain the models. Validation and calibration of these models were performed.
Results Of 5,994 patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU, 1,511 met NACSELD criteria, and 1,692 met EASL-CLIF grade II or higher criteria. The CatBoost ACLF (CBA) model had the greatest accuracy in the NACSELD cohort (area under curve [AUC] of 0.87), while the Random Forest ACLF (RFA) model performed best in the EASL-CLIF cohort (AUC of 0.83). Both models showed robust calibration. The models were explained by SHAP score analysis, yielding a rank list, and the top twelve predictors were selected. Both simplified models demonstrated similar performance (CBA model: AUC 0.89, RFA model: AUC 0.81) and significantly outperformed contemporary scoring systems, including CLIF-C ACLF and MELD 3.0. The models were validated in both internal and external cohorts. A simple-to-use online tool was created to predict mortality rates.
Conclusions We presented explainable, well-validated, and calibrated predictive models for ACLF patients with two or more OFs, which outperformed existing predictive scores.
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Unbiased clustering of acute-on-chronic liver failure patients using machine learning in a real-world ICU cohort Mengyi Zhang, Fanpu Ji, Jian Zu, Yingli He, Tao Chen, Yi Liu, Hirsh D. Trivedi, Ju Dong Yang, Vinay Sundaram, Yuan Wang, Xiaodan Sun, Zhujun Cao, Chun-Ying Wu, Yee Hui Yeo, Rajiv Jalan Nature Communications.2026;[Epub] CrossRef
Background/Aims Treatment indications for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remain contentious, particularly for patients with mild alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation. We aimed to evaluate treatment effects in this patient population.
Methods This rollover study extended a placebo-controlled trial that enrolled non-cirrhotic patients with CHB and ALT levels below two times the upper limit of normal. Following 3 years of randomized intervention with either tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) or placebo, participants were rolled over to open-label TDF for 3 years. Liver biopsies were performed before and after the treatment to evaluate histopathological changes. Virological, biochemical, and serological outcomes were also assessed (NCT02463019).
Results Of 146 enrolled patients (median age 47 years, 80.8% male), 123 completed the study with paired biopsies. Overall, the Ishak fibrosis score decreased in 74 (60.2%), remained unchanged in 32 (26.0%), and increased in 17 (13.8%) patients (p<0.0001). The Knodell necroinflammation score decreased in 58 (47.2%), remained unchanged in 29 (23.6%), and increased in 36 (29.3%) patients (p=0.0038). The proportion of patients with an Ishak score ≥ 3 significantly decreased from 26.8% (n=33) to 9.8% (n=12) (p=0.0002). Histological improvements were more pronounced in patients switching from placebo. Virological and biochemical outcomes also improved in placebo switchers and remained stable in patients who continued TDF. However, serum HBsAg levels did not change and no patient cleared HBsAg.
Conclusions In CHB patients with minimally raised ALT, favorable histopathological, biochemical, and virological outcomes were observed following 3-year TDF treatment, for both treatment-naïve patients and those already on therapy.
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