Background/Aims Early detection and effective prognosis prediction in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) provide an avenue for survival improvement, yet more effective approaches are greatly needed. We sought to develop the detection and prognosis models with ultra-sensitivity and low cost based on fragmentomic features of circulating cell free mtDNA (ccf-mtDNA).
Methods Capture-based mtDNA sequencing was carried out in plasma cell-free DNA samples from 1168 participants, including 571 patients with HCC, 301 patients with chronic hepatitis B or liver cirrhosis (CHB/LC) and 296 healthy controls (HC).
Results The systematic analysis revealed significantly aberrant fragmentomic features of ccf-mtDNA in HCC group when compared with CHB/LC and HC groups. Moreover, we constructed a random forest algorithm-based HCC detection model by utilizing ccf-mtDNA fragmentomic features. Both internal and two external validation cohorts demonstrated the excellent capacity of our model in distinguishing early HCC patients from HC and highrisk population with CHB/LC, with AUC exceeding 0.983 and 0.981, sensitivity over 89.6% and 89.61%, and specificity over 98.20% and 95.00%, respectively, greatly surpassing the performance of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and mtDNA copy number. We also developed an HCC prognosis prediction model by LASSO-Cox regression to select 20 fragmentomic features, which exhibited exceptional ability in predicting 1-year, 2-year and 3-year survival (AUC=0.8333, 0.8145 and 0.7958 for validation cohort, respectively).
Conclusions We have developed and validated a high-performing and low-cost approach in a large clinical cohort based on aberrant ccf-mtDNA fragmentomic features with promising clinical translational application for the early detection and prognosis prediction of HCC patients.
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