Tung-Hung Su, Sheng-Shun Yang, Mei-Hsuan Lee, Wei-Yu Kao, Shang-Chin Huang, Fen-Fang Chen, Francis SK Poon, Lung-Wen Tsai, Yi-Ting Chen, Che Lin, Weichung Wang, W Ray Kim, Jia-Horng Kao
Clin Mol Hepatol 2025;31(3):796-809. Published online January 6, 2025
Background/Aims There are no hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance recommendations for non-viral chronic liver diseases (CLD), such as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We explored the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score to predict HCC in MASLD and other CLD etiologies.
Methods Patients with various CLDs were included from medical centers in Taiwan. The SAFE score, consisting of age, body mass index, diabetes, and laboratory data, was calculated at baseline, and patients were traced for new development of HCC. The predictability of the SAFE score for HCC was analyzed using the sub-distribution hazard model with adjustments for competing risks.
Results Among 12,963 CLD patients with a median follow-up of 4 years, 258 developed HCC. The SAFE score classifies 1-, 3-, and 5-year HCC risk regardless of CLD etiologies. High (≥100) and intermediate (0–100) SAFE scores increased 11 and 2 folds HCC risks compared to low (<0) SAFE scores. Combining two lower risk tiers (SAFE<100), a high SAFE score (≥100) was associated with a 7.5-fold risk of HCC (adjusted sub-distributional hazard ratio [aSHR] 7.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.38–10.60). A high SAFE score increased the risks of HCC in subgroups of viral hepatitis, non-viral hepatitis (aSHR 11.10; 95% CI 3.97–31.30) and MASLD (aSHR 4.23; 95% CI 1.43–12.50). A hospital cohort (n=8,103) and a community MASLD cohort (n=120,166) validated the high SAFE score (≥100) for HCC risk prediction.
Conclusions The SAFE score stratifies high risks for HCC in CLD patients regardless of etiologies and helps to select at-risk candidates for HCC surveillance.
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HCC predictors in routine practice for patients with chronic liver diseases: Correspondence to editorial on “High SAFE scores predict hepatocellular carcinoma in viral and non-viral hepatitis and metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease” Tung-Hung Su, Jia-Horng Kao Clinical and Molecular Hepatology.2026; 32(1): e52. CrossRef
Can SAFE score be utilized as a universal hepatocellular carcinoma prediction score?: Editorial on “High Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator scores predict hepatocellular carcinoma in viral and non-viral hepatitis and metabolic dysfunction-associated Michael Kwan-Lung Ko, Loey Lung-Yi Mak Clinical and Molecular Hepatology.2026; 32(1): 371. CrossRef
Risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: Editorial on “High Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator scores predict hepatocellular carcinoma in viral and non-viral hepatitis and metabolic Ho Soo Chun, Minjong Lee Clinical and Molecular Hepatology.2026; 32(1): 368. CrossRef
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in Taiwan. The Taiwan Liver Cancer Association and the Gastroenterological Society of Taiwan developed and updated the guidelines for HCC management in 2020. In clinical practice, we follow these guidelines and the reimbursement policy of the government. In Taiwan, abdominal ultrasonography, alpha-fetoprotein, and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) tests are performed for HCC surveillance every 6 months or every 3 months for high-risk patients. Dynamic computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound have been recommended for HCC surveillance in extremely high-risk patients or those with poor ultrasonographic visualization results. HCC is usually diagnosed through dynamic imaging, and pathological diagnosis is recommended. Staging of HCC is based on a modified version of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, and the HCC management guidelines in Taiwan actively promote curative treatments including surgery and locoregional therapy for BCLC stage B or C patients. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), drug-eluting bead TACE, transarterial radioembolization, and hepatic artery infusion chemotherapy may be administered for patients with BCLC stage B or C HCC. Sorafenib and lenvatinib are reimbursed as systemic therapies, and regorafenib and ramucirumab may be reimbursed in cases of sorafenib failure. First-line atezolizumab with bevacizumab is not yet reimbursed but may be administered in clinical practice. Systemic therapy and external beam radiation therapy may be used in specific patients. Early switching to systemic therapy in TACE-refractory patients is a recent paradigm shift in HCC management.
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