Background/Aims A large percentage of patients undergoing esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening do not have esophageal varices (EV) or have only small EV. We evaluated a large, international, multicenter cohort to develop a novel score, termed FIB-4plus, by combining the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) to identify high-risk EV (HRV) in compensated cirrhosis.
Methods This international cohort study involved patients with compensated cirrhosis from 17 Chinese hospitals and one Croatian institution (NCT04546360). Two-dimensional shear wave elastography-derived LSM and SSM values, and components of the FIB-4 score (i.e., age, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet count [PLT]) were combined using machine learning algorithms (logistic regression [LR] and extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]) to develop the LR-FIB-4plus and XGBoost-FIB-4plus models, respectively. Shapley Additive exPlanations method was used to interpret the model predictions.
Results We analyzed data from 502 patients with compensated cirrhosis who underwent EGD screening. The XGBoost-FIB-4plus score demonstrated superior predictive performance for HRV, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.927 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.897–0.957) in the training cohort (n=268), and 0.919 (95% CI 0.843–0.995) and 0.902 (95% CI 0.820–0.984) in the first (n=118) and second (n=82) external validation cohorts, respectively. Additionally, the XGBoost-FIB-4plus score exhibited high AUROC values for predicting EV across all cohorts. The FIB-4plus score outperformed the individual parameters (LSM, SSM, PLT, and FIB-4).
Conclusions The FIB-4plus score effectively predicted EV and HRV in patients with compensated cirrhosis, providing clinicians with a valuable tool for optimizing patient management and outcomes.
Citations
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Background/Aims Growth hormone (GH) is the main regulator of somatic growth, metabolism, and gender dimorphism in the liver. GH receptor (GHR) signaling in cancer is derived from a large body of evidence, although the GHR signaling pathway involved in the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related HCC, remains unclear. We aimed to explore the expression of GHR and analyze its association with clinicopathologic features and prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C and HCC.
Methods The expression of GHR mRNA was investigated by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction in paired tumors and adjacent non-tumorous (ANT) liver tissues of 200 patients with chronic hepatitis C and HCC. Western blotting and immunofluorescence assays using the HCV-infected Huh7.5.1 cell model was performed.
Results GHR mRNA was significantly lower in HCV-HCC tissues than in corresponding ANT liver tissues. GHR mRNA and protein levels also decreased in the HCV-infected Huh7.5.1 cell model. Notably, lower GHR expression was associated with age of >60 years (P=0.0111) and worse clinicopathologic characteristics, including alpha-fetoprotein >100 ng/mL (P=0.0403), cirrhosis (P=0.0075), vascular invasion (P=0.0052), pathological stage II–IV (P=0.0002), and albumin ≤4.0 g/dL (P=0.0055), which were linked with poor prognosis of HCC. Most importantly, the high incidence of recurrence and poor survival rates in patients with a low ratio of tumor/ANT GHR (≤0.1) were observed, indicating that low expression levels of GHR had great risk for development of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis C.
Conclusions Our study demonstrates a significant down-regulation of GHR expression as a new unfavorable independent prognostic factor in patients with chronic hepatitis C and HCC.
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