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Tumor-based biomarkers and circulating tumor DNA for precision medicine in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2026;32(1):69-90.
Published online: August 20, 2025

1Centre de Recherche des Cordeliers, Sorbonne Université, Inserm, Université de Paris, Team «Functional Genomics of Solid Tumors», Equipe labellisée Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer, Labex OncoImmunology, Paris, France

2Department of Experimental and Clinical Medicine, Internal Medicine and Hepatology Unit, University of Firenze, Florence, Italy

3Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Guri, Korea

4Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

5Liver Unit, Hôpital Avicenne, Hôpitaux Universitaires Paris-Seine-Saint-Denis, Assistance-Publique Hôpitaux de Paris, Bobigny, France

Corresponding author : Jean-Charles Nault Liver unit, Hôpital Avicenne, Hôpitaux Universitaires Paris-Seine-Saint-Denis, Assistance-Publique Hôpitaux de Paris, 125 rue de Stalingrad, Bobigny 93000, France Tel: +33-6-10-67-94-61, E-mail: naultjc@gmail.com

Co-first authors.


Editor: Ju Dong Yang, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, USA

• Received: July 8, 2025   • Revised: August 2, 2025   • Accepted: August 18, 2025

Copyright © 2026 by The Korean Association for the Study of the Liver

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Tumor-based biomarkers and circulating tumor DNA for precision medicine in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma
Clin Mol Hepatol. 2026;32(1):69-90.   Published online August 20, 2025
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Tumor-based biomarkers and circulating tumor DNA for precision medicine in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma
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Tumor-based biomarkers and circulating tumor DNA for precision medicine in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma
Image Image Image
Figure 1. Genomic diversity of hepatocellular carcinoma. We represented the main genomic subgroups of HCC based on transcriptomic and mutational data and their correlation with histological features, risk factors and prognosis. AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; HBV, hepatitis B virus; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma.
Figure 2. Precision medicine in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. The upper section represents genetic alterations in HCC potentially targetable using targeted therapies. These data were based either on clinical trials, on case reports available in the literature or on biomarker-based treatments approved for other tumor types. The lower section represents the main candidate biomarkers of response or resistance to immunotherapy, and prognostic biomarkers in patients with advanced HCC. The analysis of tumor tissue samples allows us to derive gene expression signatures and to investigate the TME, including lymphoid and myeloid cell populations. Additionally, tumor-related or immune-related circulating factors, circulating tumor cells, and ctDNA can be measured in blood samples, providing a non-invasive way to gain insights into tumor biology. Most of these biomarkers were associated with response to immunotherapy. The role of CTNNB1 mutation as a predictive biomarker associated with resistance to immunotherapy remains controversial due to conflicting results across studies. ABRS, atezolizumab+bevacizumab response signature; AFP, alpha-fetoprotein, CRAFITY, CRP and AFP in ImmunoTherapY; CRP, C-reactive protein; ctDNA, circulating tumor DNA; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; IL-6, interleukin-6; TME, tumor microenvironment; Treg, regulatory T cells.
Figure 3. Role of circulating tumor DNA in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma. The upper portion of the figure illustrates key alterations detectable in ctDNA, including cfDNA quantification, SNVs, CNAs, gene fusions, and methylation changes. The lower portion depicts the potential clinical applications of ctDNA in patients with HCC receiving systemic therapy: (1) Prognosis: baseline ctDNA features— such as elevated levels, presence of mutations or CNAs, and methylation profiles—may correlate with tumor burden and survival outcomes and serve as surrogate markers of minimal residual disease. (2) Response: Longitudinal monitoring of ctDNA can reveal reductions in mutation burden in responders, as illustrated by the loss of detectable mutations (e.g., from mutant to wild-type status), corresponding to radiological response. (3) Resistance: Serial ctDNA analysis may uncover the emergence of additional mutations (e.g., acquisition of a second mutation) under selective therapeutic pressure, enabling early identification of resistance mechanisms. cfDNA, cellfree DNA; ctDNA, circulating tumor DNA; CNA, copy number alteration; SNV, single nucleotide variation.
Tumor-based biomarkers and circulating tumor DNA for precision medicine in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma
Treatment Treatment’s target Biomarker Type of biomarker Outcome Reference
Sorafenib VEGFR1–3, PDGFR, RAF, BRAF, KIT AFP Serum Early AFP decline >20% from baseline after 2 to 4 weeks of sorafenib associated with better OS, PFS, ORR, and disease control rate. Shao et al., 2010 [46]
Early AFP decline >20% from baseline after 6–8 weeks of sorafenib predicts survival. Lee et al., 2015 [48]
Early AFP decline >20% from baseline after 6–8 weeks of sorafenib predicts survival and response. Sánchez et al., 2018 [47]
Cytokines (including Ang-2, VEGF) Serum High serum levels significantly associated with poor response. Miyahara et al., 2011 [33]
Ang-2, VEGF Serum Baseline Ang-2 and VEGF levels predict OS. Llovet et al., 2012 [36]
VEGFA Tumor VEGFA amplification associated with longer OS Horwitz et al., 2014 [32]
VEGF Serum VEGF decrease at week 8 associated with longer OS. Tsuchiya et al., 2014 [35]
p-ERK Tumor Sorafenib treated patients with p-ERK negative staining in IHC had increased RFS. Pinyol et al., 2019 [30]
Mutations of PI3K-mTOR pathway Tumor Mutations in the PI3K-mTOR pathway lower rates of clinical benefit, had shorter PFS and OS. Harding et al., 2019 [31]
NLR Serum Lower pre-treatment NLR predictive of a greater OS benefit with sorafenib. Bruix et al., 2017 [39]
DKK1 Serum High DKK1 level associated with response rate to sorafenib (longer PFS and OS). Qiu et al., 2019 [37]
IL-8, IL-6 Serum High IL-6 and IL-8 associated with shorter OS. Öcal et al., 2022 [34]
Lenvatinib VEGFR1–3, PDGFR, FGFR1–4, RET, KIT FGF19, Ang-2 Serum Significantly increased FGF19 levels and decreased Ang-2 levels associated with response to lenvatinib. Chuma et al., 2020 [41]
VEGF, FGF21, Ang-2 Serum Higher levels of VEGF, FGF21, and ang-2 associated with shorter OS under sorafenib and lenvatinib. Finn et al., 2021 [42]
ST6GAL1 Serum Serum ST6GAL1-high HCC under lenvatinib showed better survival than sorafenib. Myojin et al., 2021 [108]
Regorafenib VEGFR1–3, PDGFR, RAF, FGFR1–3 Ang-1, cystatinB, LAP TGF-β1, LOX-1, MIP-1α Serum Serum ANG-1, cystatin B, LAP TGF-β1, LOX-1, MIP-1α predictive of regorafenib treatment benefit for OS. Teufel et al., 2019 [43]
miRNA Serum Plasma miRNAs (miR-15B, 30A, 107, 122, 125B, 200A, 320b, 374B, 645) predictive of OS Teufel et al., 2019 [43]
Cabozantinib VEGFR1–3, MET, RET, AXL AFP Serum AFP decrease ≥20% from baseline at Week 8 after treatment was associated with longer OS. Kelley et al., 2020 [109]
AFP≥400 ng/mL Serum Cabozantinib prolonged median PFS vs ramucirumab in patients with AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL. Trojan et al., 2021 [110]
MET, HGF, GAS6, IL-8, Ang-2, IGF-1 Serum Low baseline levels of MET, HGF, GAS6, IL-8, Ang-2 and high levels of IGF-1 associated with longer OS. Rimassa et al., 2021 [44]
Ramucirumab VEGFR2 AFP≥400 ng/mL Serum Serum AFP≥400 ng/mL at baseline: improved OS for ramucirumab versus placebo (prospective validation) Zhu et al., 2015 [15]
AFP>1,000 ng/mL and NLR Serum Baseline AFP>1,000 ng/mL and NLR: poor prognosis. Llovet et al., 2022 [45]
Treatment Treatment’s target Biomarker Type of biomarker Outcome Reference
Early stage HCC
Neoadjuvant Cabozantinib+Nivolumab VEGFR1–3, MET, RET, AXL Anti-PD-1 Effector T cells, TLS, CD138+ plasma cells Tumor Enrichment of effector T cells, prominent tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS), CD138+ plasma cells, specific spatial organization of B cells in responders. Ho et al., 2021 [111]
Neoadjuvant Cemiliplimab Anti-PD-1 CD8+ T cells Tumor Higher CD8 T-cell infiltration in the tumor was associated with pathological response. Marron et al., 2022 [112]
Neoadjuvant Cemiplimab or Nivolumab Anti-PD-1s CXCL13+ T helper cells, Granzyme K+ effector-like CD8+ T cells Tumor CXCL13+ T helper cells Granzyme K+ effector-like CD8+ T cells associated with pathological response. Magen et al., 2023 [55]
Anti-PD-1 based treatment* Anti-PD-1 TLSs Tumor High intratumoral TLS density at the time of surgery is associated with pathologic response and improved relapse-free survival. Shu et al., 2024 [57]
Advanced HCC
Atezolizumab+Bevacizumab Anti PDL-1+anti-VEGF CD274, intra tumoral infiltration of CD8 T cell and CXC10+ macrophages Tumor High CD274 expression, intra tumoral CD8+ effector T cell and pro-inflammatory CXC10+ macrophages associated with better PFS. Zhu et al., 2022 [53]
Myeloid inflammation signatures Tumor High levels of myeloid inflammation gene expression signature associated with improved PFS.
ABRS signature Tumor High ABRS associated with longer PFS.
CTNNB1 and TERT promoter mutations Tumor Wild-type CTNNB1 or TERT promoter mutation were associated with longer OS.
AFP Serum Decrease AFP≥20% at 3 weeks was associated with RR and OS. Campani et al., 2023 [71]
IL-6 Serum Low serum IL-6 levels were associated with longer OS and PFS. Miura et al., 2025 [113]
Durvalumab+Tremelimumab Anti-PD-L1+anti-CTLA-4 Ki67+CD8+ T cells Serum RR was associated with an expansion of Ki67+CD8+ T cells. Kelley et al., 2021 [114]
Camrelizumab+Apatinib Anti-PD-1+anti-VEGF2 PD-L1 expression Tumor PD-L1 expression was associated to higher ORR and longer PFS. Xu et al., 2021 [115]
Pembrolizumab Anti-PD-1 PD-L1 combined positive score Tumor PD-L1 combined positive score was associated to response with longer PFS. Zhu et al., 2018 [50]
TGF-β Serum High baseline TGF-β levels (≥200 pg/mL) correlated with lower PFS and OS. Feun et al., 2019 [116]
PD-L1 expression Tumor Tumor PD-L1 expression was associated to RR. Hong et al., 2022 [69]
Cytotoxic T cells infiltration, circulating CD8+ T cells, NLR Tumor and Serum Low pre-treatment NLR, infiltration of of cytotoxic T cells and increases active circulating CD8+ T cells under treatment were associated to RR. Hong et al., 2022 [69]
Nivolumab Anti-PD-1 PD-1 and PD-L1 tumor expression Tumor Tumor PD-L1 positive was associated with increased OS. Sangro et al., 2020 [49]
4-Gene signature (PD-L1, CD8A, LAG3, and STAT1) Tumor 4-Gene signature was associated with better response rate and OS.
AFP Serum Baseline lower AFP<400 μg/L was associated with longer OS.
Tremelimumab (plus ablation) Anti-CTLA-4 CD3 and CD8 T cells Tumor CD3 and CD8 immune cell tumor infiltration after treatment was higher in patients with RR. Duffy et al., 2017 [51]
Anti-PDL-(L)-1 based therapy Anti-PD-(L)-1 CRAFITY score Serum Lower CRAFITY score was associated with longer OS and better RR. Scheiner et al., 2022 [72]
Anti-PD-1 therapy† Anti-PD-1 CXCR3+CD8+ effector memory T cells, CD11c+ antigen-presenting cells Serum CXCR3+CD8+ effector memory T cells and CD11c+ antigen-presenting cells associated with RR, PFS, irAEs. Chuah et al., 2022 [70]
Anti-PD-1 therapy‡ Anti-PD-1 11-Gene signature (IFNAP signature) Tumor 11-Gene signature was associated with RR. Haber et al., 2023 [56]
Study Input Target Technique Patient Country Main result
Oh et al. [93] 1.5 mL plasma Total amount cfDNA, genomic instability Low-depth whole genome sequencing 151 Patients treated with first-line sorafenib Asia Higher cfDNA levels and genomic instability associated: shorter TTP, shorter OS and lower DCR.
Matsumae et al. [94] Plasma Total amount cfDNA, 25 genes Hybridization capture and sequencing 85 Patients treated with atezolizumab/bevacizumab Asia High cfDNA levels associated with lower ORR, shorter OS and PFS. TERT promoter mutations and AFP independent predictors of worse OS.
Hsu et al. [95] Plasma ctDNA levels, 16 gene mutations Target sequencing 48 Patients enrolled in Arm A of G030140 (NCT02715531) Asia Increased baseline ctDNA levels in patients with PD and decreased or non-detectable ctDNA in responders.
Sogbe et al. [102] 10 mL blood (plasma) CNA Ultra-low-pass wholegenome sequencing 31 Patients treated with systemic treatments Europe ctDNA mutations are associated with worse OS. Loss of 5q and 16q associated with a significantly worse OS.
Campani et al. [96] 1 mL plasma cfDNA levels, 5 gene mutations Digital-droplet PGR, target sequencing 53 Patients treated with systemic therapy Europe Dynamic of baseline mutations are associated with radiological response and progression. Emergence of CTNNB1 mutations at radiological progression.
Hirai et al. [97] 1 mL plasma TERT promoter mutations (C228T, C250T) Digital-droplet PGR 130 HCC patients treated with TKI (sorafenib or lenvatinib) or TACE Asia TERT promoter mutations associated with shorter OS in patients treated by TKI. TERT promoter mutations associated with poorer OS, higher VAF associated with worse OS.
Oversoe et al. [98] 5 mL plasma C228T TERT promoter mutation Digital-droplet PGR 26 Patients treated with sorafenib Europe No differences in OS in TERT promoter mutated and non-mutated patients.
von Felden et al. [99] Plasma 25 Gene mutations Digital-droplet PGR, target sequencing 61 Patients (23 treated with TKI and 38 with CPI) USA Mutations in the PI3K/MTOR pathway: shorter PFS in patients treated with TKI. Wnt pathway mutations not associated with outcomes in under CPI. New mutations at radiological progression.
Chuma et al. [100] Serum 50 Gene mutations Target sequencing 24 Patients treated with atezolizumab/bevacizumab Asia No correlation between mutations and treatment response.
Ikeda et al. [104] 20 mL blood (plasma) 68 Gene mutations Target sequencing 14 Advanced HCC Asia rEesponses: (1) CDKN2A and CTNNB1 mutated patient under palbociclib+celecoxib; (2) MET, TP53, and PTEN mutated patients under sirolimus+cabozantinib.
Galle et al. [117] Blood EMT-associated ctDNA methylation changes 12 Patients treated with sorafenib Europe Methylation changes in EMT genes predict tumor response and acquired resistance to sorafenib.
Nakatsuka et al. [118] 1 mL plasma Total amount cfDNA, TERT promoter mutations, 275 gene mutations Digital-droplet PGR, target sequencing 35 Patients treated with systemic treatment Asia Increase in cfDNA levels during systemic treatment, higher early increase in cfDNA levels under systemic treatment in patients who achieved response.
Alunni-Fabbroni et al. [119] 5 mL blood (plasma) Total amount cfDNA, 597 gene mutations Target sequencing 13 (SORAMIC trial) Europe cfDNA levels high during treatment associated with worse OS.
Fujii et al. [107] 2 mL plasma 74 Gene mutations Target sequencing 24 Patients receiving lenvatinib Asia VAFmean* stable after 4 weeks in patients with PD or SD, VAFmean reduced in patients with PR or CR. VAFmean reduction associated to longer PFS.
Cowzer et al. [105] Blood 129 Gene mutations Target sequencing 51 Patients treated with systemic therapy USA High concordance with matched tumor: higher VAF associated with AFP, tumor volume, and no previous systemic therapy, no association with OS.
Muraoka et al. [106] 8 mL blood (plasma) C228T TERT promoter mutation Digital-droplet PCR 41 Patients treated with TKI Asia Increase in TERT promoter mutations levels within 1 week of TKI initiation predict PFS.
Oversoe et al. [120] 4–5 mL plasma CTNNB1 p.T41A hotspot mutation Digital-droplet PCR 37 Patients of whom at least two were treated with sorafenib Europe VAF of CTNNB1 p.T41A increase after 4–8 weeks of sorafenib associated with progression
Ikeda et al. [121] 20 mL plasma ctDNA mutations Target sequencing 26 With advanced HCC, some treated with systemic therapy Asia Emergence of BRCA1 and TP53 mutations during capecitabine treatment.
Table 1. Circulating and tumor biomarkers of response to TKIs in advanced HCC

AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; Ang-1, Angiopoietin 1; Ang-2, Angiopoietin 2; AXL, AXL receptor tyrosine kinase; BRAF, B-Raf proto-oncogene, serine/threonine kinase; DCR, disease control rate; DKK1, Dickkopf-1; GAS6, growth arrest specific factor 6; FGF, fibroblast growth factor; FGFR1–4, fibroblast growth factor receptors 1–4; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HGF, hepatocyte growth factor; IGF-1, insulin-like growth factor 1; IHC, immunohistochemistry; IL-6, interleukin-6; IL-8, interleukin-8; KIT, KIT proto-oncogene, receptor tyrosine kinase; LAP, latency-associated peptide; LOX-1, lectin-like oxidized low-density lipoprotein receptor-1; MET, mesenchymal-epithelial transition; MIP, macrophage inflammatory protein; miRNA, microRNA; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; ORR, overall response rate; OS, overall survival; PDGFR, platelet-derived growth factor receptor; p-ERK, phosphorylated ERK; PFS, progression-free survival; PI3K, phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase; RET, rearranged during transfection; RFS, recurrence-free survival; ST6GAL1, 6-sialyltransferase 1; TGF, transforming growth factor; TKIs, tyrosine kinase inhibitors; VEGF, vascular endothelial growth factor; VEGFR, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor.

Table 2. Circulating and tumor biomarkers of response to immunotherapy in early and advanced HCC

ABRS, atezolizumab+bevacizumab response signature; AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; AXL, AXL receptor tyrosine kinase; CRAFITY, CRP and AFP in ImmunoTherapY; CRP, C-reactive protein; CTLA-4, cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; ICI, immune check-points inhibitors; IFNAP, interferon and antigen presentation; IL-6, interleukin-6; irAEs, immune-related adverse effects; MET, mesenchymal-epithelial transition; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; ORR, overall response rate; OS, overall survival; PD-1, programmed death 1; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; PFS, progression-free survival; RET, rearranged during transfection; RR, radiological response; TGF, transforming growth factor; TKI, tyrosine kinase inhibitor; TLS, tertiary lymphoid structure; VEGF, vascular endothelial growth factor; VEGFR, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor.

Neoadjuvant treatments were: anti-PD-1+TKI (n=14), anti-PD-1 (n=3), anti-PD-1 + anti-CTLA4 (n=1), anti-PD-1 + anti-CTLA4 + TKI (n=1);

anti-PD-1 drug used: Nivolumab and Pembrolizumab;

anti-PD-1 drug used as first-line: Nivolumab (n=67), Pembrolizumab (n=14), Tislelizumab (n=2).

Table 3. Studies describing the role of ctDNA in predicting prognosis and monitoring systemic treatment in HCC

AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; BAX, Bcl-2–associated X; BRCA1, breast cancer 1; CDKN2A, cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A; cfDNA, circulating free DNA; CNA, copy number alteration; CPI, immune checkpoint inhibitors; CR, complete response; ctDNA, circulating tumor DNA; CTNNB1, Catenin beta-1; DCR, disease control rate; HR, hazard ratio; EMT, epithelial-mesenchymal transition; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; MET, mesenchymal-epithelial transition factor; ORR, objective response rate; OS, overall survival; PCR, polymerase chain reaction; PD, progressive disease; PFS, progression-free survival; PI3K, phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase; PR, partial response; PTEN, phosphatase and tensin homolog; SD, stable disease; TACE, transarterial chemoebolization; TERT, telomerase reverse transcriptase; TKI, tyrosine-kinase inhibitor; TP53, tumor protein 53; TTP, time to progression; VAF, variant allele frequency; VEGF: vascular endothelial growth factor.

VAFmean: mean of VAF of all mutated genes.